WARNING OF COLLAPSE TRIGGERED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND OIL DEMAND

By KAREN ALLAN

08:50 - 08 May 2007

There could be a massive global collapse because of an increasing demand for oil and soaring climate gas emissions, a lecture will hear tomorrow.

Prof Jorgen Randers will discuss this possibility at the leadership lecture at St Andrews.

He is a professor of policy analysis at the Norwegian School of Management in Oslo, where he teaches scenario analysis and corporate social responsibility. His presentation - Global Collapse: Fact or Fiction? - will look at the collapse which was first introduced in his book The Limits of Growth, which was published in 1972 and updated 30 years later.

The term "global collapse" is defined as "a situation where society experiences an unwanted, sudden and unstoppable decline in the average welfare of its citizens".

Prof Randers' book mainly focused on a collapse caused by global limitations.

In his lecture at St Andrews University, he will highlight two ongoing developments he believes could trigger a large-scale collapse - a disastrous event affecting at least 1billion people, over 20 years.

The first is the rapid increase in oil demand, which might overwhelm the global capacity to produce oil and result in rapidly increasing prices while its use quickly declines.

The second is rapidly increasing emissions of climate gases, which may lead to increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and fast change in the global climate.

The professor is to address an invited audience of key academics and business figures from throughout the UK.

The lecture is the fifth in a series organised by the Forres-based Sustainable Development Research Centre, which explores the concepts of sustainable development, corporate social responsibility and social enterprise development.

Professor Stephen Tinsley, chief executive of the SDRC, said: "We are delighted to have someone of Professor Randers' reputation and standing to deliver the fifth leadership lecture in the current series.

"All our speakers are selected to challenge the audience in terms of their thinking and to influence, shape and develop policy in Scotland.

"Professor Randers believes that, if left unchecked, oil demand and climate gases are capable of causing significant difficulties for large groups of society but, if action is taken, both can be managed without terrible consequences for the planet.

"While providing an excellent opportunity to hear the latest thinking on sustainable development policy, these lectures are also a chance to meet with leading contemporaries in the field and debate how best to move Scotland and indeed the whole of the UK forward in terms of sustainable development."

The lecture is being hosted by the SDRC, St Andrews University and UHI Millennium Institute.

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