Sustainable Regional Development in a Rural Remote Area (Caithness and Sutherland, Scotland) –Modelling impacts And Obstacles
Holger Bergmann and Kenneth J. Thomson
With the latest reform of EU Structural Policy (SP), the Highlands and Islands were excluded from further support of Structural Funds beyond 2013. However, with the new Scottish Rural Development Plan, expenditures in Scotland financed partly by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development have been increased by more than 150%. In addition to three longstanding Pillar 2 measures (LFA support, afforestation schemes and agri-environmental payments) more than 30 measures (supporting a wide range of investments into agriculture, forestry and rural communities) have been introduced.
A modified version of a system dynamics model constructed for an EU-wide case-study project (TOP-MARD) was used to simulate the effects of the changes of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) as well as SP in Caithness and Sutherland (C&S), a remote rural area in Northern Scotland. The C&S economy is dominated by a three-fold job structure: farming and crofting provides employment for some 15% of inhabitants, public administration provides more than 40%, and the Dounreay experimental reactor near Thurso (under decommissioning since 2001) about 15%, directly and indirectly.
In this paper, the context of the modelling work in policy and socio-economic terms is first described. This is followed by the specification and calibration of the model and the base line scenario projecting forward to the year 2021. On the basis of expert interviews, several alternative modelling scenarios, mostly relating to reconfigurations of Pillar 2 spending within the area, were developed. More specifically, four scenarios are compared to the baseline scenario:
Baseline scenario: All changes in CAP and SP expenditures from 2007 onwards, plus projected changes in expenditures during Dounreay decommissioning between
2007 and 2021.
Axis 1 scenario:
Spending all annual EU Pillar 2 expenditures from 2007 onwards on “Competitiveness of Agriculture and Forestry”
Axis 2 scenario: Spending all annual EU Pillar 2 expenditures from 2007 onwards on "Improving the Environment and Countryside"
Axis 3 and LEADER scenario: Spending all annual EU Pillar 2 expenditures from 2007 onwards on "Quality of Life and Diversification of the Rural Economy"
Modulation scenario: Reducing Pillar 1 expenditures by 50% and increasing Pillar 2 expenditures by Axis proportionally.
The modelling results are discussed in terms of regional population, Quality of Life (QoL) and economic trends, from 2001 to 2021, and show that depopulation trends in C&S can be avoided by appropriate tailored sustainable rural development policies. Finally, some conclusions are drawn, both about the implications of the results for sustainability in C&S and in general for remote rural areas across Scotland, and about the usefulness of this type of modelling exercise for policy analysis of rural development measures.
We are grateful for helpful comments during this research from the people of Caithness and Sutherland, and specifically to Eann Sinclair, Anna MacConnell and Katrina MacNab. This publication derives from the EU-funded project ‘Towards a Policy Model of Multifunctional Agriculture and Rural Development’ (TOP-MARD), with collaborating partners: the University of Highlands and Islands, UK (co-ordinator); the Agricultural University of Athens, Greece; the Institute for Rural Development Research, Germany; the Federal Institute for Less-Favoured and Mountainous Areas, Austria; the Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain; the Rural Economy and Research Centre, Teagasc, Ireland; the University of Rome, Italy; the Nordic Centre for Spatial Development, Sweden; the Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute.
.
