Modelling the Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change

G Pryce and D. Mackay, University of Glasgow

This paper seeks to establish a robust framework for modelling the socio-economic impacts of climate change. A methodology is developed in the context of UK flood risk and the effect on house prices and employment – an important research topic in itself given the dearth of quantitative research on these effects, particularly in the UK.

An overview and critique of the existing literature is presented along with a summary of the data. Initial results are presented based on spatial econometric model of recent flood impacts on urban housing and employment. We then illustrate how the model can be used to simulate the projected effects of increased flood frequency as a result of projected climate change (based on UKCIP scenarios, for example).